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Tax Revenue Keeps Rising, But Growth Again Ticks Downward
States’ tax collections grew for a seventh straight quarter and are now topping pre-recession levels, though they remain below peak levels seen after the recession's start, according to this Institute report. Looking forward, the rate of revenue growth may slow in light of broad economic trends. New to this quarterly report is an analysis of states’ fiscal positions at the end of fiscal year 2011.
Lucy Dadayan, January 26, 2012
Giving and Getting: Regional Distribution of Revenue and Spending
in the New York State Budget, Fiscal Year 2009-10
Downstate gives more to the state in taxes and revenues than it gets back in expenditures for services and other assistance. Upstate, on the other hand, gets more than it gives, according to this report , which analyzes the regional distribution of revenues collected and dollars spent within the New York State budget. The report examines actual receipts and expenditures for the 2009-10 fiscal year. The study considered "state funds" only, excluding federal assistance and state expenditures supported by such aid.
December 20, 2011
States Post Another Strong Quarter in Tax Collections
Preliminary data for the July-September quarter of 2011 show growth in overall state tax collections, as well as for personal income tax and sales tax revenue, for the seventh consecutive quarter. Collections increased by 7.3 percent in the third quarter of 2011 compared to the same quarter of 2010. While still strong, revenue growth was more moderate than in the previous three quarters.
Lucy Dadayan, December 8, 2011
State Revenues in an Era of Fundamental Change
While states' revenues are now growing, challenges remain, especially in light of an outlook for slow economic growth, Deputy Director Robert Ward told a conference of the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy and New England Public Policy Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. His presentation reviewed recent fiscal trends for states and localities, and pointed to some choices elected leaders may need to consider in “an era of fundamental change” for public finance.
Robert B. Ward, December 2, 2011
PIT, Overall Tax Revenues Show Strong Growth in Second Quarter
State tax revenues grew again in the second quarter of 2011 — the end of the fiscal year for 46 states — marking six straight quarters of year-over-year growth and the strongest annual gains since 2005, according to this Institute report. State collections from personal income taxes took a dramatic jump — rising more than 16 percent — in the April-June quarter, compared to the same period of 2010. But tax collections for local governments have headed in the opposite direction.
Lucy Dadayan and Robert B. Ward, October 26, 2011
The Great Recession and Regional Realignments
Economic conditions during the Great Recession have exacerbated longer term trends, hitting Southern and Western states particularly hard, Institute Director Thomas Gais told the National Federation of Municipal Analysts at a conference in Austin, Texas. As this slide presentation shows, those regions have also experienced the greatest population growth over the last decade. But the added population has included both employed individuals and needy ones — poor children, the elderly and uninsured people. These are also states with smaller governments and political cultures that have inhibited tax revenue growth. And Southern and Western states have been particularly dependent on federal assistance, which is being cut. So in addition to the pension liability issues hitting historically large-government states in the Northeast and Midwest, states in the Mountain West and South may be facing increased gaps between needs and resources, straining their ability to deal with health and poverty-related issues.
Thomas L. Gais, October 20, 2011
Cracks in the Crystal Ball: Errors in State Revenue Estimates
Errors in states' revenue estimates have worsened during the fiscal crises following the last two recessions, in large part because of the rising importance of capital gains and other volatile sources of income, Institute Deputy Director Robert Ward told the Federation of Tax Administrators' Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference. Citing the Institute's March 2011 report on revenue estimates, Ward suggested policymakers consider establishing stronger reserves and limiting reliance on volatile elements of their tax systems.
Robert B. Ward, October 19, 2011
Strong, Broad Growth in State Tax Revenues Continued
in the Second Quarter of 2011
State tax revenues showed strong growth in the second quarter of 2011, with an 11.4 percent year-over-year increase in total collections, preliminary data show. Tax collections have been rising for six straight quarters, but remain below peak levels.
Lucy Dadayan, September 1, 2011
The Surprise Economy: Why Has New York Been Outperforming the Nation?
New York State’s economic performance has lagged the nation’s for decades. But here's a surprising fact: Employment trends in the Empire State beat the national average for four straight years before, during and after the Great Recession. Two big questions: Why? And, what does this suggest for economic-development policy in New York?
Robert B. Ward, August 31, 2011
State and Local Government Employment Shows Broad, Continuing Declines
While the private sector has added a modest number of jobs over the last 17 months, state and local governments have shed positions for 29 months now, according to data released July 22. The decline in education jobs — which account for the largest number of local government positions — is far greater than in any recent recession dating back to the 1970s.
Lucy Dadayan and Robert B. Ward, July 22, 2011
Robust Revenue Gains Continue in First Quarter and Early Second Quarter
States’ tax revenues grew by 9.3 percent in the first quarter of 2011, marking the fifth straight quarter of growth, according to this Institute report. Preliminary data indicate growing revenue strength through the second quarter, although such robust gains are not expected to last. Local tax revenues declined for the second straight quarter, due primarily to weak property tax collections.
Lucy Dadayan, July 2011
Back in the Black: States' Gambling Revenues Rose in 2010
State and local governments' revenues from gambling rose 2 percent in fiscal year 2010 compared to the previous year, following an unprecedented dip, according to this Institute report. Nonetheless, total revenues from gambling remained lower than in fiscal year 2008. Pennsylvania accounted for nearly half the nationwide growth in 2010. Lucy Dadayan and Robert B. Ward, June 23, 2011
States Report Strong Growth in Tax Revenues in the First Quarter of 2011
Preliminary tax collection data for the January-March quarter of 2011 show strong growth in overall state tax collections as well as for personal income tax and sales tax revenue, according to this Data Alert. However, tax revenue collections are still below peak levels. The Rockefeller Institute's compilation of data from 47 early reporting states shows collections from major tax sources increased by 9.1 percent in nominal terms in the first quarter of 2011 compared to the same quarter of 2010. That represented the third consecutive quarter of increasing strength in revenues. Tax collections now have been rising for five straight quarters, following five quarters of declines, but were still 3.1 percent lower in early 2011 than in the same period three years ago.
Lucy Dadayan and Donald Boyd, May 24, 2011
Tax Revenues Finished 2010 Strong; Growth Continues in Early 2011
States’ tax revenues finished 2010 strong, with 7.8 percent growth in the fourth quarter and solid gains continuing in early 2011, this Institute report shows. Tax collections by local governments, however, declined by 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010, driven mostly by declines in property tax collections.
Lucy Dadayan and Donald J. Boyd, April 19, 2011
State & Local Financial Update
It will be a long road to fiscal recovery for the states after the recent recession, which was far worse than past recessions, Senior Fellow Donald Boyd told the Annual Meeting of the Government Investment Officers Association. Fiscal decisions made — including the use of temprorary tax revenue and federal stimulus funds — soften the blow while stretching out the duration of the crisis. Longer term pressures loom, including increasing costs for pensions, retiree health care and Medicaid, along with cuts in the federal budget.
Donald J. Boyd, March 18, 2011
Errors in State Revenue Estimates Growing
States have been making more serious errors in estimating their revenues during tough economic times, according to this report by the Pew Center on the States and the Rockefeller Institute. Driven largely by increasing volatility in state revenue systems, this trend has major implications for officials who set budgets for programs and services while grappling with severe fiscal shortfalls.
The Pew Center on the States and the Rockefeller Institute of Government, March 1, 2011
State Tax Revenues Gained New Strength in Fourth Quarter
After the deepest recession since the Great Depression, most states are on the gradual road to tax revenue recovery, according to this Rockefeller Institute report. Final third-quarter and early fourth-quarter data signal an upward trend. Yet several indicators suggest broad state fiscal conditions remain fragile.
Lucy Dadayan and Donald J. Boyd, February 2011
Stop us beforewe tax again
In this presentation to the Legislative Conference of the New York Association of Counties, Senior Fellow Donald Boyd analyzed the effects of tax caps. Tax caps can be effective at reducing property taxes and government expenditures in areas like education, he concluded, but not the overall size of the public sector.
Donald J. Boyd, February 8, 2011
Economic Perspectives on State & Local Taxes
Senior Fellow Donald Boyd made this presentation to the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy and the New England Public Policy Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. While states' revenue crisis is easing, the fiscal crisis continues, he explained, as the recent recession was worse than those in previous decades.
Donald J. Boyd, January 21, 2011
